Carl Shulman (Pt 2) — AI Takeover, bio & cyber attacks, detecting deception, & humanity's far future

卡尔·舒尔曼(第二部分)——AI接管、生物与网络攻击、欺诈检测以及人类的遥远未来

Dwarkesh Podcast

2023-06-26

3 小时 7 分钟
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单集简介 ...

The second half of my 7 hour conversation with Carl Shulman is out! My favorite part! And the one that had the biggest impact on my worldview. Here, Carl lays out how an AI takeover might happen: * AI can threaten mutually assured destruction from bioweapons, * use cyber attacks to take over physical infrastructure, * build mechanical armies, * spread seed AIs we can never exterminate, * offer tech and other advantages to collaborating countries, etc Plus we talk about a whole bunch of weird and interesting topics which Carl has thought about: * what is the far future best case scenario for humanity * what it would look like to have AI make thousands of years of intellectual progress in a month * how do we detect deception in superhuman models * does space warfare favor defense or offense * is a Malthusian state inevitable in the long run * why markets haven't priced in explosive economic growth * & much more Carl also explains how he developed such a rigorous, thoughtful, and interdisciplinary model of the biggest problems in the world. Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Catch part 1 here Timestamps (0:00:00) - Intro (0:00:47) - AI takeover via cyber or bio (0:32:27) - Can we coordinate against AI? (0:53:49) - Human vs AI colonizers (1:04:55) - Probability of AI takeover (1:21:56) - Can we detect deception? (1:47:25) - Using AI to solve coordination problems (1:56:01) - Partial alignment (2:11:41) - AI far future (2:23:04) - Markets & other evidence (2:33:26) - Day in the life of Carl Shulman (2:47:05) - Space warfare, Malthusian long run, & other rapid fire Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
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  • If you have an AI that produces bioweapons that could kill most humans in the world,

  • then it's playing at the level of the superpowers in terms of mutually assured destruction.

  • What are the particular zero-day exploits that the AI might use?

  • conquistadors with some technological advantage in terms of weaponry and whatnot.

  • Very,

  • very small bands were able to overthrow these large empires or

  • if you predicted the global economy is going to be skyrocketing into the stratosphere within 10 years.

  • These AI companies should be worth a large fraction of the global portfolio.

  • And so this is indeed contrary to the efficient market hypothesis.

  • This is like.

  • literally the top in terms of contributing to my world model in terms of all the episodes I've done.

  • How do I find more of these?

  • So we've been talking about alignment.

  • Suppose we fail out of alignment and we have AIs that are unaligned and at some point becoming more and more intelligent.

  • What does that look like?

  • How concretely could they disempower and take over humanity?

  • This is a scenario where we have many AI systems.

  • They have the way we've been training them means that they're not interested when they have the opportunity to take over and rearrange things to do what they wish,

  • including having their reward or loss be whatever they desire.

  • They would like to take that opportunity.