Sarah C. M. Paine — Why dictators keep making the same fatal mistake

萨拉·C·M·佩恩——《独裁者为何屡屡犯下同样的致命错误》

Dwarkesh Podcast

2023-10-04

2 小时 24 分钟
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单集简介 ...

I learned so much from Sarah Paine, Professor of History and Strategy at the Naval War College. We discuss: - how continental vs maritime powers think and how this explains Xi & Putin's decisions - how a war with China over Taiwan would shake out and whether it could go nuclear - why the British Empire fell apart, why China went communist, how Hitler and Japan could have coordinated to win WW2, and whether Japanese occupation was good for Korea, Taiwan and Manchuria - plus other lessons from WW2, Cold War, and Sino-Japanese War - how to study history properly, and why leaders keep making the same mistakes If you want to learn more, check out her books - they’re some of the best military history I’ve ever read. Watch on YouTube, listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript. Timestamps (0:00:00) - Grand strategy (0:11:59) - Death ground (0:23:19) - WW1 (0:39:23) - Writing history (0:50:25) - Japan in WW2 (0:59:58) - Ukraine (1:10:50) - Japan/Germany vs Iraq/Afghanistan occupation (1:21:25) - Chinese invasion of Taiwan (1:51:26) - Communists & Axis (2:08:34) - Continental vs maritime powers Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
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  • And this notion that Stalin personally is responsible for these millions of deaths,

  • there were millions of people pulling millions of triggers for all these deaths.

  • Initially, Hitler did incredibly well.

  • I mean, his Blitzkrieg incredible.

  • If he'd quit right there,

  • he would have gotten away with it and probably be considered a brilliant leader by Germans.

  • Putin, he's made a pivotal error.

  • He has no back down plan.

  • He only has a double down plan.

  • The People's Republic to take Taiwan, I presume it's going to begin with an artillery barrage.

  • I presume that's going to be leveling time in these cities, right?

  • Just watch how it goes in Ukraine.

  • I can't imagine the Chinese being less brutal.

  • You're going to say that's OK.

  • Okay, today I have the pleasure of speaking with Sarah Payne.

  • She is a professor of strategy and policy at the Naval War College.

  • And she has written some of the best military history I've ever read.

  • And we're going to get into history, strategy, all kinds of interesting topics today.

  • My first question, does grand strategy as a concept make sense?

  • So you have these countries, but the people making these decisions are individuals,