Gwern — Anonymous writer who predicted AI trajectory on $12K/year salary

格温——年收入12千美元的匿名作家,预言了人工智能的发展轨迹

Dwarkesh Podcast

2024-11-14

1 小时 36 分钟
PDF

单集简介 ...

Gwern is a pseudonymous researcher and writer. He was one of the first people to see LLM scaling coming. If you've read his blog, you know he's one of the most interesting polymathic thinkers alive. In order to protect Gwern's anonymity, I proposed interviewing him in person, and having my friend Chris Painter voice over his words after. This amused him enough that he agreed. After the episode, I convinced Gwern to create a donation page where people can help sustain what he's up to. Please go here to contribute. Read the full transcript here. Sponsors: * Jane Street is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for ML researchers, FPGA programmers, and CUDA programmers. Summer internships are open - if you want to stand out, take a crack at their new Kaggle competition. To learn more, go to janestreet.com/dwarkesh. * Turing provides complete post-training services for leading AI labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Gemini. They specialize in model evaluation, SFT, RLHF, and DPO to enhance models’ reasoning, coding, and multimodal capabilities. Learn more at turing.com/dwarkesh. * This episode is brought to you by Stripe, financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out this page. Timestamps 00:00:00 - Anonymity 00:01:09 - Automating Steve Jobs 00:04:38 - Isaac Newton's theory of progress 00:06:36 - Grand theory of intelligence 00:10:39 - Seeing scaling early 00:21:04 - AGI Timelines 00:22:54 - What to do in remaining 3 years until AGI 00:26:29 - Influencing the shoggoth with writing 00:30:50 - Human vs artificial intelligence 00:33:52 - Rabbit holes 00:38:48 - Hearing impairment 00:43:00 - Wikipedia editing 00:47:43 - Gwern.net 00:50:20 - Counterfactual careers 00:54:30 - Borges & literature 01:01:32 - Gwern's intelligence and process 01:11:03 - A day in the life of Gwern 01:19:16 - Gwern's finances 01:25:05 - The diversity of AI minds 01:27:24 - GLP drugs and obesity 01:31:08 - Drug experimentation 01:33:40 - Parasocial relationships 01:35:23 - Open rabbit holes Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
更多

单集文稿 ...

  • Today I'm interviewing Guern Brandwin.

  • Guern is an anonymous internet researcher and writer.

  • He's deeply influenced the people who are building AGI.

  • He was one of the first people to see LLM scaling coming.

  • If you've read his blog, you know he's one of the most interesting polymathic thinkers alive.

  • We recorded this conversation in person.

  • In order to protect Guern's anonymity, we created this avatar.

  • This isn't his voice.

  • This isn't his face.

  • But these are his words.

  • Guern What is the most underrated benefit of anonymity?

  • I think the most underrated benefit of anonymity is that people don't project onto you as much.

  • They kind of can't like slot you into any particular niche or identity and like end up writing you off in advance.

  • You know, everyone has to read you at least a little bit to even begin to dismiss you.

  • It's great that people can't retaliate against you and I've derived a lot of benefit from people not being able to like mail heroin to my home and call the police to swap me,

  • but I always feel that the biggest benefit is just that you get a hearing at all basically.

  • You don't get immediately written off by the context.

  • Do you expect companies to get automated top down starting with the CEO or from the bottom up starting with the workers?

  • All the pressures, I think, are to go bottom up.

  • And from existing things,