2025-01-10
59 分钟Tyler, welcome.
Dworkesh, great to be chatting with you.
Why won't we have explosive economic growth 20% plus because of AI?
It's very hard to get explosive economic growth for any reason, AI or not.
One problem is that some parts of your economy grow very rapidly,
and then you get a cost disease in the other parts of your economy that,
for instance, can't use AI very well.
Look at the US economy.
These numbers are guesses, but government consumption is what, 18%?
Healthcare is almost 20%.
I'm guessing education is 6% to 7%.
The non-profit sector, I'm not sure the number, but you added all up.
That's half of the economy right there.
How well are they going to use AI?
Is failure to use AI going to cause them to just immediately disappear and be replaced?
No, that will take, say, 30 years.
So you'll have some sectors of the economy less regulated where it happens very quickly,
but that only gets you a modest booth and growth rates.
Not anything like, oh, the whole economy grows 40% a year in a nutshell.
The mechanism behind cost disease is that there's a limited amount of laborers,