Sarah Paine — The war for India (lecture & interview)

莎拉·佩恩——《印度战争》(讲座与访谈)

Dwarkesh Podcast

2025-01-17

2 小时 12 分钟
PDF

单集简介 ...

I’m thrilled to launch a new trilogy of double episodes: a lecture series by Professor Sarah Paine of the Naval War College, each followed by a deep Q&A. In this first episode, Prof Paine talks about key decisions by Khrushchev, Mao, Nehru, Bhutto, & Lyndon Johnson that shaped the whole dynamic of South Asia today. This is followed by a Q&A. Come for the spy bases, shoestring nukes, and insight about how great power politics impacts every region. Huge thanks to Substack for hosting this! Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Sponsors Today’s episode is brought to you by Scale AI. Scale partners with the U.S. government to fuel America’s AI advantage through their data foundry. The Air Force, Army, Defense Innovation Unit, and Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office all trust Scale to equip their teams with AI-ready data and the technology to build powerful applications. Scale recently introduced Defense Llama, Scale's latest solution available for military personnel. With Defense Llama, military personnel can harness the power of AI to plan military or intelligence operations and understand adversary vulnerabilities. If you’re interested in learning more on how Scale powers frontier AI capabilities, go to scale.com/dwarkesh. Timestamps (00:00) - Intro (02:11) - Mao at war, 1949-51 (05:40) - Pactomania and Sino-Soviet conflicts (14:42) - The Sino-Indian War (20:00) - Soviet peace in India-Pakistan (22:00) - US Aid and Alliances (26:14) - The difference with WWII (30:09) - The geopolitical map in 1904 (35:10) - The US alienates Indira Gandhi (42:58) - Instruments of US power (53:41) - Carrier battle groups (1:02:41) - Q&A begins (1:04:31) - The appeal of the USSR (1:09:36) - The last communist premier (1:15:42) - India and China's lost opportunity (1:58:04) - Bismark's cunning (2:03:05) - Training US officers (2:07:03) - Cruelty in Russian history Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
更多

单集文稿 ...

  • I need to start with a disclaimer

  • because I work for the US government and they require you to do a disclaimer.

  • So the ideas that you're about to hear are my ideas.

  • They don't necessarily represent those of the US government, the US Navy Department,

  • the US Department of Defense, let alone the Naval War College where I work.

  • Are we all good on this?

  • All right.

  • So today I'm going to tell you a story of three protagonists, Russia, the United States and China.

  • that all wanted to work their magic on India and Pakistan, which didn't exactly appreciate it.

  • So two big topics.

  • One is intervening in someone else's problems, a cottage industry for the United States.

  • And also, before you do that, you really ought to check out the alignments.

  • Who's the primary adversary of whom?

  • How long has it been that way?

  • And also,

  • Ask these questions about all the neighbors and anyone who might want to crash the party along with you It's also a story of a series of limited wars.

  • What's a limited war?

  • It means it's or something less than regime change So however,

  • it turns out the governments that started that war are still in place and two of them resulted in quick victories the ideal and warfare the first one was the Sino-Indian War of 1962 and the other one was the Bangladesh War of Independence in 1971.

  • And these wars changed things in many short-term expected ways and then in many long-term highly unexpected ways.