2025-04-03
3 小时 4 分钟Today, I have the great pleasure of chatting with Scott Alexander and Daniel Cocotello.
Scott is, of course, the author of the blog Slate Star Codex, Astral Codex 10 Now.
It's actually been a, as you know, a big bucket list item of mine to get you on the podcast.
So this is all the first podcast we've ever done, right?
Yes.
And then Daniel is the director of the AI Futures project.
And you have both just launched today something called AI 2027.
So, what is this?
Yeah, AI 2027 is our scenario trying to forecast the next few years of AI progress.
We're trying to do two things here.
First of all, is we just want to have a concrete scenario at all.
So, you have all these people, Sam Altman, Dario Ahmadai,
Elon Musk saying, gonna have AGI in three years, super intelligence in five years.
And people just think that's crazy
because right now we have chatbots that's able to do like a Google search,
not much more than that in a lot of ways.
And so people ask, how is it going to be AGI in three years?
What we wanted to do is provide a story, provide the transitional fossils.
So start right now, go up to 2027 when there's AGI,
2028 when there's potentially super intelligence, show on a month by month level what happened.