Xi Jinping’s paranoid approach to AGI, debt crisis, & Politburo politics — Victor Shih

Dwarkesh Podcast

2025-05-29

1 小时 29 分钟
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On this episode, I chat with Victor Shih about all things China. We discuss China’s massive local debt crisis, the CCP’s views on AI, what happens after Xi, and more. Victor Shih is an expert on the Chinese political system, as well as their banking and fiscal policies, and he has amassed more biographical data on the Chinese elite than anyone else in the world. He teaches at UC San Diego, where he also directs the 21st Century China Center. Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Sponsors * Scale is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they just released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh. * WorkOS is how top AI companies ship critical enterprise features without burning months of engineering time. If you need features like SSO, audit logs, or user provisioning, head to workos.com. To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise. Timestamps (00:00:00) – Is China more decentralized than the US? (00:03:16) – How the Politburo Standing Committee makes decisions (00:21:07) – Xi’s right hand man in charge of AGI (00:35:37) – DeepSeek was trained to track CCP policy (00:45:35) – Local government debt crisis (00:50:00) – BYD, CATL, & financial repression (00:58:12) – How corruption leads to overbuilding (01:10:46) – Probability of Taiwan invasion (01:18:56) – Succession after Xi (01:25:10) – Future growth forecasts Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
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  • Today, I'm talking with Victor Shi,

  • who is the director of the 21st Century China Center at UC San Diego.

  • China is obviously the most important economic and geopolitical issue over time,

  • and doubly so if you believe what I believe about AI.

  • I was especially keen to talk to you because you have deep expertise,

  • not only in Chinese elite politics, but also its economic system, its fiscal banking policies.

  • We'll get into all of that before we get into the AI topics.

  • Is China actually a more decentralized system than America?

  • If you look at government spending by provincial governments versus the national government in China,

  • it's like 85% local per provincial, 15% national.

  • In the US, it's actually, if you look at state and local,

  • it's 50%, national, federal government is 50%.

  • What do you think of an authoritarian system?

  • You often think of it as like very top down, the center controls everything.

  • But if you look at these numbers, it just seems like it's quite decentralized.

  • Or is that the wrong way to look at the numbers?

  • I think for a while China was quite decentralized.

  • So this is kind of in from the mid 1970s all the way until the mid 1990s.

  • China was very decentralized where local governments generated a lot of revenue,

  • but they also spent a lot of money.