Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner

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  Okay, this is a narration of a blog post I wrote on June 3,

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  2025 titled, Why I Don't Think AGI is Right Around the Corner.

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  Quote, Things take longer to happen than you think they will,

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  and then they happen faster than you thought they could.

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  Routiger Dornbush.

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  I've had a lot of discussions on my podcast where we hackle out our timelines to AGI.

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  Some guests think it's 20 years away, others 2 years.

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  Here's where my thoughts lie as of June 2025.

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  Continue learning.

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  Sometimes people say that even if all AI progress totally stopped,

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  the systems of today would still be far more economically transformative than the internet.

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  I disagree.

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  I think that the LLMs of today are magical,

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  but the reason that the Fortune 500 aren't using them to transform their workflows isn't

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  because management is too stodgy.

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  Rather, I think it's genuinely hard to get normal human-like labor out of LLMs.

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  And this has to do with some fundamental capabilities that these models lack.

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  I like to think that I'm AI-forward here at the Thorkesh podcast,

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  and have probably spent on the order of 100 hours trying to build these little LLM tools for my post-production setup.

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  The experience of trying to get these LLMs to be useful has extended my timelines.

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