Oil or nothing: will Trump's Venezuela gamble pay off?

为石油而战

Money Talks from The Economist

2026-01-08

35 分钟
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Donald Trump had oil on his mind when he declared America would “run” Venezuela, in the wake of an audacious US mission to capture the country's dictator Nicolás Maduro. But while Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, extracting a profit for US firms may be harder than President Trump thinks. Hosts: Ethan Wu and Mike Bird. Guest: Vijay Vaitheeswaran, The Economist's global energy and climate innovation editor. Transcripts of our podcasts are available via economist.com/podcasts. Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.
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  • The Economist.

  • As dawn begins on the new world in Venezuela,

  • her mounting oil riches are bringing modern benefits to its capital, Caracas.

  • The discovery of large oil deposits in 1922 transformed Venezuela from an agricultural nation into a global energy powerhouse.

  • It went on to become one of the five founding members of the oil cartel OPEC in 1960.

  • And with the oil boom of the 1970s, Venezuela nationalized the industry,

  • taking over a lot of foreign-owned oil assets and forming PDVSA, the state-owned giant.

  • By the late 1990s, 2 million barrels a day, more than half the country's oil output, was heading north.

  • Venezuela's importance to the United States can be summed up this way: Oil.

  • It is the third-largest supplier to the United States

  • and has some of the largest reserves of crude oil in the world.

  • And sitting on top of it all is the charismatic, autocratic president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez.

  • Chavez was elected in 1998 and dramatically increased state control of the oil industry.

  • Or, as Donald Trump put it:

  • We built Venezuela oil industry with American talent, drive, and skill, and the socialist regime stole it from us.

  • Production declined due to underinvestment and mismanagement of PDVSA.

  • When Chavez died in 2013, Nicolas Maduro took office.

  • The following year, the oil price crashed.

  • The Venezuelan economy slipped into what has become a perma-crisis.

  • Millions fled the country, and those who stayed faced shortages of food, fuel, and medicine.