Are You Ready for a Fresh Start? (Update)

你准备好迎接新的开始了吗?(更新)

Freakonomics Radio

2025-12-30

42 分钟
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Behavioral scientists have been exploring whether a psychological reset can lead to lasting change. In this update of a 2021 episode, we survey evidence from the London Underground, Major League Baseball, and New Year’s resolutions to look at accidental fresh starts, forced fresh starts, fresh starts that backfire — and the ones that succeed.    SOURCES:Katy Milkman, professor at the Wharton School.Andy Byford, former commissioner of Transport for London.Ferdinand Rauch, economist at the University of St. Gallen.Hengchen Dai, professor at U.C.L.A.’s Anderson School of Management.Bob Tewksbury, former big-league pitcher.  RESOURCES:“A Large-Scale Experiment on New Year’s Resolutions: Approach-Oriented Goals are More Successful than Avoidance-Oriented Goals,” by Martin Oscarsson, Per Carlbring, Gerhard Andersson, and Alexander Rozental (PLOS ONE, 2020).“A Double-Edged Sword: How and Why Resetting Performance Metrics Affects Motivation and Performance,” by Hengchen Dai (Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2018).“The Benefits of Forced Experimentation: Striking Evidence from the London Underground Network,” by Shaun Larcom, Ferdinand Rauch, and Tim Willems (2017).“Framing the Future: The Risks of Pre-Commitment Nudges and Potential of Fresh Start Messaging,” by John Beshears, Hengchen Dai, Katherine L. Milkman, and Shlomo Benartzi (NBER, 2016).“The Fresh Start Effect: Temporal Landmarks Motivate Aspirational Behavior,” by Hengchen Dai, Katherine L. Milkman, and Jason Riis (Management Science, 2014).“Holding the Hunger Games Hostage at the Gym: An Evaluation of Temptation Bundling,” by Katherine L. Milkman, Julia A. Minson, and Kevin G. M. Volpp (Management Science, 2013).“The Resolution Solution: Longitudinal Examination of New Year’s Change Attempts,” by John C. Norcross and Dominic J.Vangarelli (Journal of Substance Abuse, 1989).  EXTRAS:How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, by Katy Milkman (2021). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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  • Hey there, it's Stephen Dubner.

  • You are probably already thinking about the New Year and inevitably the New Year's resolution.

  • How often do resolutions actually work?

  • And when they do, why do they?

  • That's what we are asking in this episode.

  • It is an update of a piece we first aired in 2021.

  • We have updated facts and figures where necessary.

  • Happy listening and happy New Year.

  • I know a lot of people were particularly excited about January 1 of this year.

  • I got extra emails about, oh, thank goodness, it's finally 2021.

  • I'm so excited.

  • I'm a professor at the Wharton School, and I'm also the author of the book, How to Change.

  • And I'm the co-director of the Behavior Change for Good Initiative with Angela Duckworth.

  • As a behavior change specialist, Milkman sees January 1st as something of a high holy day.

  • Every year, roughly half of all Americans make a New Year's resolution to break some habit,

  • fix some flaw, pick up some new activity.

  • At the top of these wish lists, and yes, I am calling them wish lists,

  • you'll see why later, at the top are eating better, drinking less, exercising more.

  • We asked Freakonomics radio listeners to tell us their resolutions for this year.

  • Some of you set the bar pretty low.