Why economists got free trade with China so wrong

经济学家为何对中国自由贸易的判断如此失误

Planet Money

2025-12-30

25 分钟
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单集简介 ...

With the year coming to a close, we're sharing our most popular Planet Money bonus episode of 2025!  As U.S. trade with China exploded in the early 2000's, American manufacturing began to shrivel. Those workers struggled to adapt and find new jobs. It ran counter to how mainstream economics at the time viewed free trade ... that it would be a clear win for the U.S. Greg Rosalsky talks with David Autor about why economists got free trade with China so wrong.  Autor, an MIT economics professor, and his colleagues published a series of eye-opening studies over the last 15 years or so that brought to light the costs of U.S. trade with China. We also hear Autor's thoughts on the role of tariffs and get an update on his research. With better, more precise data, Autor says we have a more nuanced and "bleaker" picture of what happened to these manufacturing workers.  You can read about Autor's research and sign up for The Planet Money Newsletter here.  To hear more bonus content like this and support NPR and public media, sign up for Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney. Regular episodes remain free to listen! Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices NPR Privacy Policy
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单集文稿 ...

  • Hey, Greg Grzalski here.

  • Today we're sharing our most popular bonus episode of 2025.

  • It's my conversation with economist David Otter from the beginning of this year.

  • It's about the cost of free trade.

  • If you're new to NPR Plus, we wanted to make sure you didn't miss this one.

  • If you've already heard it, don't worry,

  • we'll be back with a fresh bonus episode for you in two weeks.

  • And if you're not signed up for Plus, but want more bonus content like this, go to plus.npr.org.

  • So for decades,

  • the mainstream thinking in economics was that free trade would be a clear win for the United States.

  • Sure, the reasoning went some workers might lose jobs,

  • but the thinking was they'd get new ones as the economy changed and grew and everything would basically be fine.

  • Everything turned out not to be fine.

  • No research project has made that more clear than once spearheaded by MIT economist David Otter and his colleagues.

  • The story that has been told.

  • About the consequence of trade is so far from the reality of how people live that it's just you know It's all gains.

  • Everyone's better off.

  • There's no real cost I mean in theory there could be but in practice there's not but that's just not the lived experience of anyone and that's not what the data ultimately show Over the last 15 years or so,

  • Otter, along with economists David Dorn and Gordon Hansen,

  • have published a series of eye-opening studies on something known as the China shock.