53. What’s the Secret to Making a Great Prediction?

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  This is what we're gonna do.

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  It's going to work out well because I said so.

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  I'm Angela Duckworth.

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  I'm Stephen Dubner.

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  And you're listening to No Stupid Questions.

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  Today on the show, what's the secret to making a great prediction?

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  My prediction would have been right if these things had happened.

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  Also, why do even the most successful people have bad days?

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  The eggs were overcooked.

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  Angela Duckworth.

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  Stephen Dubner.

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  There is at least one way that I would very much like to be more like my son,

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  Solomon, who's a college sophomore.

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  He seems capable of making predictions in a way that is totally divorced from emotion,

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  even when he has a stake in the thing he's predicting.

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  So as an example, he works in politics.

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  Okay.

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  And he follows things closely and he has some decent information,

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  so he often has a pretty good sense of who's going to win a campaign,

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  whether it's his candidate or the other.

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