Martha Gimbel on the Impact of AI and the Trade War on Labor Markets

玛莎·吉姆贝尔论人工智能和贸易战对劳动力市场的影响

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

2025-12-15

55 分钟
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Martha Gimbel is the executive director and co-founder of the Budget Lab at Yale. In Martha's first appearance on the show, she discusses the missing BLS job market data, the consequences of losing two months of labor market data, the impact of AI on the labor market in the short and long term, why it is hard to determine which job sectors AI will impact first, why people will keep learning foreign languages, the future impact tariffs will have on the economy, why US treasuries might get left for the hometown guy in a Hallmark Christmas movie, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on November 19th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Martha on X: @MarthaGimbel Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:48 - The Budget Lab at Yale 00:05:34 - Missing Government Data 00:14:21 - Artificial Intelligence 00:44:49 - Trade Wars 00:54:51 - Outro
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  • Welcome to Macro Musings,

  • where each week we pull back the curtain and take a closer look at the most important macroeconomic issues of the past,

  • present, and future.

  • I am your host, David Beckworth,

  • a senior research fellow with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University,

  • and I'm glad you decided to join us.

  • Our guest today is Martha Gimbal.

  • Martha is the Executive Director and Co-Founder of the Budget Lab at Yale.

  • Martha joins us today to discuss AI's impact on the labor market,

  • the trade war, and the fiscal outlook for the U.S.

  • economy.

  • Martha, welcome to the program.

  • Thank you so much for having me.

  • Thanks for joining us.

  • This appearance is long overdue.

  • I followed your work in the private sector indeed at the CEA.

  • And now you are leading out at the Budget Lab at Yale.

  • A lot of interesting work.

  • Of course, as the trade war has unfolded, you guys have put out very timely estimates.

  • In fact, it was funny,