RWH063: Avoid Disaster w/ Howard Marks

RWH063:与霍华德·马克斯共避灾难

We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network

2025-12-14

1 小时 20 分钟
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In this episode, William Green chats with multibillionaire investor Howard Marks, the co-founder & co-Chairman of Oaktree Capital Management. Since its launch 30 years ago, the firm has grown into a global powerhouse in alternative investments, with $218 billion in assets. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:04:01 - Why Howard Marks aims for “steady excellence,” not shooting the lights out. 00:05:59 - What investors should learn from great (& not-so-great) tennis players. 00:13:13 - How to figure out the right “risk posture” for your investment portfolio. 00:20:12 - How he managed to pull off 5 major market calls in the course of his career. 00:33:24 - What makes Bruce Karsh, his long-time partner, a superb investor. 00:36:52 - How specialization can give you a powerful edge. 00:57:53 - How today’s investment environment resembles the dotcom bubble. 00:54:21 - Why Howard expects most AI companies to “end up worthless.” 00:58:55 - Why he’s deeply wary of investing in Bitcoin & gold. 01:10:46 - Why bonds now strike him as a relatively attractive investment. 01:20:05 - How he reached the pinnacle without sacrificing family, friends or hobbies. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Inquire about William Green’s ⁠⁠⁠Richer, Wiser, Happier Masterclass⁠⁠⁠. The Complete Collection of Howard Marks’ Memos. Howard Marks’ book The Most Important Thing Illuminated. Howard Marks’ book Mastering the Market Cycle. Charlie Ellis's book Winning the Loser’s Game. David Swensen's Pioneering Portfolio Management. Edward Chancellor's Devil Take the Hindmost. William Green’s book, “Richer, Wiser, Happier” – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠read the reviews of this book⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Follow William Green on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast. Ad-free episodes on our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠We Study Billionaires Starter Packs⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠sponsors⁠: Simple Mining⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Human Rights Foundation⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Unchained⁠⁠ ⁠⁠HardBlock⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Linkedin Talent Solutions⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Public.com⁠⁠ - see the full disclaimer ⁠⁠here⁠⁠. ⁠⁠Amazon Ads⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Alexa+⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Shopify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Vanta⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Onramp⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Abundant Mines⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Horizon Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
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  • You're listening to TIP.

  • You're listening to the richer, wiser, happier podcast where your host, William Green,

  • interviews the world's greatest investors and explores how to win in markets and life.

  • Hi, folks.

  • I'm absolutely thrilled to welcome back a very special guest today,

  • Howard Marks, who's the chairman of Oak Tree Capital Management.

  • It's been a landmark year both for Oak Tree and Howard.

  • Oak Tree recently celebrated its 30-year anniversary.

  • Since Howard co-founded the firm in 1995, it's been a spectacular success.

  • It's grown into a globally revered leader in alternative investments with something like two hundred and eighteen billion dollars in assets under management and more than fourteen hundred employees around the world and a few weeks ago how it also celebrated another landmark which is thirty five years of writing his extraordinary memos which are such a trove of clear and lucid investment wisdom that they've earned a devoted following of i think more than three hundred thousand subscribers how it marked that anniversary by publishing a free compilation of forty five of the best memos which i spent the last couple of days rereading.

  • I would say personally that nobody other than Warren Buffett has done more to distill and share the enduring truths of investing.

  • So today,

  • we're going to focus in some depth on some of the most important things that Howard's figured out in his 56 years,

  • and not only as one of the great investors of our time,

  • but I would say also one of the great teachers of the investing world.

  • So Howard, it's lovely to see you again.

  • Thank you so much for joining us.

  • Thank you, William.

  • With the introduction like that, I'm tempted to say go on.

  • Okay, well, we're off to a good start then.