The meaning of China’s record-high trade surplus

中国经济冰与火

Economist

2025-12-11

9 分钟
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  • When people in China talk about the "two meetings",

  • they mean the annual gatherings of the country's legislature and its advisory body in March.

  • But another pair of meetings this month could prove more important for China's economy.

  • The just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), a yearly gathering of leaders,

  • has set the direction for economic policy in 2026.

  • Meanwhile, in a meeting on December 10th, Vanke,

  • once China's second-biggest property developer,

  • pleaded with its creditors for an extra year to repay a bond that will soon fall due.

  • The Vanke meeting is another sign that China's property slump,

  • the source of much economic trouble, is far from over.

  • But the conference in Beijing suggested that China's leaders have other things on their minds.

  • One of their preoccupations is technological self-reliance.

  • By that yardstick, the past year has been a success.

  • DeepSeek, an artificial-intelligence firm based in entrepreneurial Zhejiang province,

  • has shown that China can compete with America's best models despite constraints on its computing power.

  • And ten years after the launch of its "Made in China 2025" initiative,

  • the country comfortably exceeded its goals for localising electric-vehicle-making and the renewable-energy industry.

  • Where China is not self-reliant it has also become more secure.

  • It has turned its dominance in rare earths—critical elements

  • used in powerful magnets and other manufacturing components—into an effective economic weapon.