2025-11-18
19 分钟The US economy is navigating some tricky waters right now with still high inflation,
a weakening labor market and an evolving policy landscape,
making the outlook and the Fed's next steps quite uncertain.
My guest today is Robert Kaplan,
vice chairman of Goldman Sachs and former president of the Dallas Fed.
Rob, welcome back to Exchanges.
Good to be with you.
So, Rob, let's start right in with the Fed.
Chair Powell made some pretty hawkish comments after the last FOMC about the prospect of a December rate cut.
It surprised some people.
We in Goldman Sachs research are still expecting a cut in December.
The market seems somewhat less convinced.
What's your read on those comments?
So you may know, going into the October meeting,
I had been saying that the market expectation of a further rate cut in December,
the probabilities of that rate cut were, to my eye, way too high.
It doesn't mean the Fed won't cut rates in December, but I think it's a much tougher decision.
And so I was glad that Jay in the press conference balanced the decision a little bit more and left the Fed more time to really debate this out.
And you see more articles about a split in the committee.
It's understandable.