Taiwan’s amazing economic achievements are yielding alarming strains

台湾经济奇迹的代价

Economist

2025-11-14

21 分钟
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  • It is a wild economic success, but is racked by eye-popping imbalances.

  • It is one of the richest countries in the world,

  • with an output per person higher than Australia, Germany or Japan after adjusting for the cost of living,

  • but has the world's most undervalued currency, according to The Economist's Big Mac index.

  • It is on a roll, but risks a messy correction.

  • Economic management does not usually involve many Shakespearean dilemmas,

  • but Taiwan's quandary is genuinely wrenching:

  • the CBC, its central bank, is naturally reluctant to abandon the policies that have made the country so wealthy,

  • yet clinging to them is clearly unsustainable.

  • At first glance, there is only good news.

  • The world is buying Taiwanese computer chips as fast as TSMC and other local manufacturers can make them.

  • Exports of chips and servers have soared by 300% over the past five years—and were high to begin with.

  • This surge has yielded stratospheric trade surpluses.

  • In October Taiwan's monthly goods-trade surplus reached a record $22.6bn, or 31% of GDP at an annualised rate.

  • The current-account surplus, which includes the trade balance and other income that flows across borders,

  • has swollen to 16% of GDP so far this year, up from 10% in the 2010s.

  • Typically, when a country's exports surge, its currency will strengthen,

  • since foreigners will need more of it to pay for the goods they are buying.

  • This process can be economically harmful:

  • in the 1970s The Economist coined the phrase "Dutch disease" to describe the economic malaise in the Netherlands,