Burst bubble: what could come if America's markets turn

泡沫破裂:如果美国市场逆转,可能会发生什么?

Editor's Picks from The Economist

2025-11-17

8 分钟
PDF

单集简介 ...

A handpicked article read aloud from the latest issue of The Economist. Many anticipate an AI-driven American stockmarket crash, yet few have considered what happens next. Falling wealth would squeeze consumers, strain budgets, and intensify the global protectionism already reshaping trade. Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to Economist Podcasts+. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account.
更多

单集文稿 ...

  • The Economist Hi, this is Ethan Wu, co-host of Money Talks, our business and finance podcast.

  • Welcome to Editor's Picks.

  • We've handpicked an article we recommend from the most recent edition of The Economist.

  • I hope you enjoy it.

  • If America's stock market crashes,

  • it will be one of the most predicted financial implosions in history.

  • Everyone from bank bosses to the IMF has warned about the stratospheric valuations of America's tech companies.

  • Central bankers are bracing for financial trouble.

  • Investors who made their names betting against subprime mortgage bonds in 2007 to 2009 have resurfaced for another big short.

  • At any sign of a wobble, such as a recent slight weekly fall in the Nasdaq index of tech stocks,

  • speculation mounts that the market is on the precipice.

  • And no wonder, The cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index of stocks,

  • propelled by the magnificent 7 tech giants, has reached levels last seen during the dot-com boom.

  • Investors are betting that the vast spending on artificial intelligence, or AI, will pay off.

  • Yet the numbers are daunting.

  • For companies to achieve a 10% return on the AI capex projected by 2030,

  • they will collectively need $650 billion of annual AI revenues,

  • equivalent to over $400 per year from every iPhone user, reckons JP Morgan Chase, a bank.

  • History shows such lofty expectations are often disappointed at first by new technologies,

  • even if they go on to change the world.