Tara Sinclair on Building a Synthetic FOMC Through AI

塔拉·辛克莱尔谈通过人工智能构建合成联邦公开市场委员会

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

2025-11-10

52 分钟
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单集简介 ...

Tara Sinclair is a professor and chair of the economics department at George Washington University. Tara returns to the show to discuss her ambitious paper simulating an FOMC meeting before it happens with LLM models, the process of building sim FOMC members, the importance of publicly funding economic data, the future of AI and macroeconomics, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on October 27th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Tara on X: @TaraSinc Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:44 - Data and Policymaking 00:05:28 - Federal Forecasters Conference 00:08:01 - FOMC in Silico 00:32:56 - Future Applications 00:38:29 - Broader Implications 00:42:57 - Central Bank Governance and AI 00:51:40 - Outro
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单集文稿 ...

  • Welcome to Macro Musings,

  • where each week we pull back the curtain and take a closer look at the most important macroeconomic issues of the past,

  • present, and future.

  • I am your host, David Beckworth,

  • a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University,

  • and I'm glad you decided to join us.

  • Our guest today is Tara Sinclair.

  • Tara is a professor and the chair of the economics department at George Washington University.

  • From 2022 to 24,

  • Tara also served as a deputy assistant secretary for macroeconomics and the office of economic policy at the U.S.

  • Department of Treasury.

  • Tara and her co-author Sophia Kazanik have a new paper out titled FOMC and Silico.

  • a multi-agent system for monetary policy modeling.

  • In this paper, Tara and Sophia used large language models, LLMs,

  • to simulate the decision-making process of the FOMC right down to the personalities and debates inside the Echols building.

  • It's one of the most ambitious efforts yet to fuse AI with monetary policy analysis with big implications for policy.

  • Tara joins us today to discuss this paper today.

  • Tara, welcome back to the program.

  • It's great to be back.

  • Thank you, David.