2025-10-29
12 分钟We've seen some really significant moves in the commodity markets of late.
Crude oil is rising on the back of new U.S. sanctions on Russia,
rare earth minerals are playing a central role in U.S.-China tensions,
and gold has given back some of the huge gains it's made this year.
So what's ahead for these markets, and how can commodities fit into portfolios today?
I'm Alison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
This week, I'm joined by Don Streuven, co-head of Commodities Research in Goldman Sachs Research.
Don, welcome back to the program.
Thanks for having me, Alison.
So there's so much going on right now with commodities, but let's start with crude oil.
I think our listeners have probably heard about the news that the US is imposing new sanctions on Russian oil.
But just bring us up to date.
What has happened so far, and how important is that to oil markets?
So the two largest Russian oil producers.
Rossneft and Luke Oil got hit with fresh sanctions by the US.
Together, those two companies have been exporting 3 million barrels per day of oil year to date.
That's a lot of oil, roughly 3% of the global market.
Our simulations suggest that prices could end up almost $20 per barrel higher in 2026
if you were to see a sustained and large disruption in the export volumes from those two companies,
assuming other OPEC plus producers like Saudi Arabia don't fill in.