2025-10-22
19 分钟Is the U.S. economy still on solid footing?
This spring, the big question was whether our recession was ahead.
Now the question seems to be, how has the U.S. economy proven so resilient?
And what does its continuing strength mean for the Federal Reserve?
I'm Allison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
This week, I'm joined by David Miracle, our chief U.S. economist in Goldman Sachs research.
David, welcome back to Exchanges.
Thanks, Allison.
Great to be back.
David, it's been a little while since you've been with us.
So why don't we start with you providing us a top line view of what's going on with the US economy right now?
We've obviously been lacking a lot of the data we normally get
because we have this ongoing government shutdown.
But it seems like growth is holding up relatively well,
despite fears that we and I think many people had that tariffs would weigh on growth.
So what explains that resilience?
Yeah, I think that's right.
We came into the year like most forecasters expecting modest tariffs and 2% plus GDP growth.
We found out in March and April that we were getting a lot more than we bargained for in the way of tariffs,
and we and most forecasters lowered our growth forecast from call it the 2% plus neighborhood to the 1% neighborhood.