Bubble trouble: could the AI boom go pop?

泡沫之困:人工智能繁荣能否戛然而止?

Money Talks from The Economist

2025-10-09

38 分钟
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Until recently, tech bosses who invested their company's money too freely could expect to be punished by investors. Not so in the age of AI. Last year, $1trn was spent on AI hardware and software. Spending is still surging, to the delight of investors. The value of America's stockmarket has risen by $21trn since the release of ChatGPT in 2022. But AI companies and services still only account for revenue in the low tens of billions of dollars. Could that mismatch turn the AI market boom to bust? Hosts: The Economist's Mike Bird and Alice Fulwood. Guests: Byrne Hobart, author of “Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation”, and Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital Management. Transcripts of our podcasts are available via economist.com/podcasts. Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.
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  • Did you know SIBO VIX Index measures market uncertainty?

  • Meaning it could rise from bullish positioning in SIBO SPX options due to fear of missing out rather than fear of downside.

  • More at SIBO.com slash VIX Insight.

  • Review important risk disclosures and disclaimers at SIBO.com slash US underscore disclaimers.

  • The Economist.

  • It's called Chat GPT.

  • More than just search results, it provides fully synthesized answers, code, cover letters and more.

  • That was 2022 and investors were beginning to see the potential.

  • Let's look at Nvidia having a pretty solid day up 2.8% at the moment after Citigroup predicted the chatbot chat GPT could be a Pokemon Go moment for artificial intelligence.

  • Since then, Nvidia's share price has increased by more than 1000%.

  • And the value of America's stock market has climbed by $21 trillion.

  • Just 10 firms, including Nvidia, account for more than half of that.

  • But despite kickstarting this bull run, OpenAI, which makes ChatGBT,

  • may make just around $13 billion in revenue this year.

  • Nevertheless, OpenAI plans a trillion-dollar-plus infrastructure build-out across chips,

  • data centers, and custom silicone.

  • And all of that has got analysts and investors asking, Are we in an AI bubble?

  • Are you concerned at all about a bubble?

  • Do you think it's possible we're in a bit of an AI bubble?

  • How do you think about this bubble talk?