Why Russia’s wartime economy is starting to crack, with Elina Ribakova

为何俄罗斯的战时经济开始破裂,以艾琳娜·里巴克娃为例

The Economics Show

2025-08-18

31 分钟
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单集简介 ...

When the EU and US hit Russia with fresh sanctions in 2022, many analysts expected the country’s economy to crack. Instead, Russia has shown strong GDP growth, powered in large part by a massive boost to war-related industries. Now, the effects of that boost appear to be fading. Have western sanctions finally started to bite? What would happen to Russia’s economy if the Ukraine war were to end? And how difficult might it be for the country’s economy to return to normal? To find out, the FT’s economics editor Sam Fleming speaks to Elina Ribakova. Elina is a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a non-resident fellow at Brussels think-tank Bruegel and vice-president for foreign policy at the Kyiv School of Economics. Sam Fleming is the FT’s economics editor. You can find his articles here: https://www.ft.com/sam-fleming Want more? Free links: Russia moves to contain concern over banks’ bad loan exposure Vladimir Putin’s war economy is cooling, but Russians still feel richer Russia’s central bank speeds up rate cuts as war economy cools There's no money to be made in Russia The FT Weekend Festival returns for its 10th edition on Saturday, September 6 at Kenwood House Gardens in London. Get details and tickets here Subscribe to The Economics Show on Apple, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you listen.  Presented by Sam Fleming. Produced by Mischa Frankl-Duval. Flo Phillips is the executive producer. Manuela Saragosa is the FT’s acting co-head of audio. Original music from Breen Turner, and sound design by Breen Turner & Sam Giovinco. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  • Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been hit by multiple waves of sanctions.

  • Yet its economy has been relatively resilient.

  • GDP grew more than 4% last year, boosted by wartime spending.

  • Unemployment is historically low and competition for workers has driven real wage growth.

  • Now, recent data suggests the Russian economy's war bump is fading.

  • So are sanctions finally biting? Did they ever really work?

  • And what would happen to the country's economy if the war in Ukraine were to end?

  • This is The Economics Show. I'm Sam Fleming, the FT's economics editor.

  • To find out, I'm speaking to Elena Ribakova.

  • Elena is a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics,

  • a non-resident fellow at the Brussels Think Tank Brogel,

  • and vice president for foreign policy at the Kiev School of Economics.

  • Elena, welcome to the show.

  • Thank you so much for having me.

  • Now, before I kick off, I should point out we're recording this on Thursday the 14th of August,

  • so before President Trump and Putin are due to meet in Alaska.

  • Elena, first off, we do this thing on the economic show where we get our guests to rate something from 1 to 10.

  • On that scale, what kind of shape is the Russian economy in at the moment?

  • Well, I would say the Russian economy is now around four.

  • Right, and we want to integrate all kinds of factors into it, the short-term economic developments,