Are Investors Complacent?

投资者是否过于自满?

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

2025-07-22

34 分钟
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Markets seem to be taking tariffs and landmark changes in global trade policy in stride. Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius and Dom Wilson discuss the impact of tariffs on inflation and growth, and their outlook for the second half of 2025. This episode was recorded on July 17, 2025. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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  • President Trump's sizable tariffs are still on the table.

  • But markets seem very relaxed about this landmark change in global trade policy.

  • And the economic data seems to be hanging in.

  • So why is that?

  • And is there a risk that investors have become too complacent?

  • I'm Alison Nathan and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.

  • Today I'm joined by Jan Hatzius, head of Goldman Sachs Research and the firm's chief economist,

  • and Dominic Wilson, senior advisor in the Global Markets Research Group.

  • Jan, Dom, it's great to have you back on exchanges again.

  • Thank you.

  • Look forward to it.

  • Jan, as I just said, the markets seem very complacent about tariff risk at this point,

  • but a lot is still happening around them.

  • So first, just catch us up.

  • What's been implemented so far on the tariff front, and what do you expect to be implemented ahead?

  • So far,

  • we've seen about a nine percentage point increase in the average effective tariff rate on all US imports,

  • which is composed of 30% China tariffs,

  • 25% Canada, Mexico, ex-USMCA, 10% on a broad range of countries,

  • and then some sector-specific tariffs, especially on autos and on steel and aluminum.