How to Make Your Own Luck (Update)

如何创造自己的好运(更新版)

Freakonomics Radio

2025-07-09

58 分钟
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Before she decided to become a poker pro, Maria Konnikova didn’t know how many cards are in a deck. But she did have a Ph.D. in psychology, a brilliant coach, and a burning desire to know whether life is driven more by skill or chance. She found some answers in poker — and she’s willing to tell us everything she learned.   SOURCES:Maria Konnikova, author of The Biggest Bluff.  RESOURCES:“Gender Differences in Performance Predictions: Evidence from the Cognitive Reflection Test,” by Patrick Ring, Levent Neyse, Tamas David-Barett, and Ulrich Schmidt (Frontiers in Psychology, 2016).“The headwinds/tailwinds Asymmetry: An Availability Bias in Assessments of Barriers and Blessings,” by Shai Davidai and Thomas Gilovich (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2016).“The Two Settings of Kind and Wicked Learning Environments,” by Robin M. Hogarth, Tomás Lejarraga, and Emre Soyer (Current Directions in Psychological Science, 2015)."The Limits of Self-Control: Self-Control, Illusory Control, and Risky Financial Decision Making,” by Maria Konnikova (Columbia University, 2013).“Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement” by J.B. Rotter (Psychological Monographs: General and Applied, 1966).  EXTRAS:The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win, by Maria Konnikova.Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes, by Maria Konnikova.The Confidence Game, by Maria Konnikova.Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, by John Von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern."This Year’s World Series Of Poker Is Different," by Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova (2025).
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  • Hey there, it's Stephen Dubner.

  • Today, we're bringing you one of my favorite episodes from the archive.

  • This came out in 2020.

  • I distinctly remember recording this interview in a COVID era coat closet.

  • The episode is called How to Make Your Own Luck,

  • and it's a conversation with the writer Maria Kanakova about her decision to become a professional poker player.

  • We've updated facts and figures as necessary.

  • As always, thanks for listening.

  • This is Freakonomics Radio,

  • the podcast that explores the hidden side of everything with your host Stephen Dubner.

  • I love a book that immediately lets you see what the writer is seeing,

  • lets you hear what they're hearing, even smell what they're smelling.

  • The Room is a Sea of People.

  • Bent heads, pensive faces, many obscured by sunglasses, hats, hoodies, massive headphones.

  • It's difficult to discern where the body's end and the green of the card tables begins.

  • The smell of stale casino air fills the room.

  • Old carpet, powder, cold fried food and flat beer,

  • and the unmistakable metallic tang of several thousand exhausted bodies that have been sharing the same space

  • since morning.

  • It's the first day of the biggest poker tournament of the year,