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The FT's energy editor Malcolm Moore tells me that there is an age-old rule in the global oil market.
When war breaks out in the Middle East, oil prices spike.
The idea is that if there's a conflict in such an oil-rich region, it could become scarce.
So typically traders buy up as many barrels as possible.
But when Iran struck a U.S. air base in Qatar last Monday,
it was a major escalation in the recent conflict between Iran, the U.S. and Israel.
And the market didn't spike.
The opposite happened.
There was no price rise at all.
Oil traders started selling.
They decided the missiles were for show and they called it right.
Oil traders bet that this war would be short-lived.
But how exactly did they hit the nail on the head?