How oil traders called the Middle East war

石油交易员如何称呼中东战争

Behind the Money

2025-07-02

19 分钟
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When Iran attacked a US airbase in Qatar – a response to strikes on its nuclear facilities – many feared a global war may be imminent. But there was one market that didn’t break a sweat: oil. It’s typically a commodity that surges at the first sight of conflict in the Middle East. This time though, oil traders bet that the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the US would be short-lived. The FT’s energy editor Malcolm Moore explains how traders called the outcome correctly.  Clips from ABC News, Al Jazeera, Associated Press, CBS News, Fox 9 Minneapolis St Paul, ITV News, KTLA 5, NBC News - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  For further reading: How oil traders called the Middle East conflict Fuel and fury: energy becomes a Middle East battlefield Why oil traders are watching the Strait of Hormuz Why is the oil price not surging? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  Follow Malcolm Moore (@MalcolmMoore) and Saffeya Ahmed on X (@saffeya_ahmed), or follow Saffeya on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.  Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  • The FT's energy editor Malcolm Moore tells me that there is an age-old rule in the global oil market.

  • When war breaks out in the Middle East, oil prices spike.

  • The idea is that if there's a conflict in such an oil-rich region, it could become scarce.

  • So typically traders buy up as many barrels as possible.

  • But when Iran struck a U.S. air base in Qatar last Monday,

  • it was a major escalation in the recent conflict between Iran, the U.S. and Israel.

  • And the market didn't spike.

  • The opposite happened.

  • There was no price rise at all.

  • Oil traders started selling.

  • They decided the missiles were for show and they called it right.

  • Oil traders bet that this war would be short-lived.

  • But how exactly did they hit the nail on the head?