638. Are You Ready for the Elder Swell?

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Freakonomics Radio

2025-06-27

54 分钟
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In the U.S., there will soon be more people over 65 than there are under 18 — and it’s not just lifespan that’s improving, it’s “healthspan” too. Unfortunately, the American approach to aging is stuck in the 20th century. In less than an hour, we try to unstick it. (Part three of a three-part series, “Cradle to Grave.”)   SOURCES:James Chappel, professor of history at Duke University.Katy Fike, co-founder of Aging 2.0 and managing partner of Generator Ventures.Kristen Fortney, co-founder and C.E.O. of BioAge.Celine Halioua, founder and C.E.O. of Loyal.Kyla Scanlon, economic commentator.Andrew Scott, professor of economics at London Business School.  RESOURCES:In This Economy?: How Money & Markets Really Work, by Kyla Scanlon (2024).Golden Years: How Americans Invented and Reinvented Old Age, by James Chappel (2024).The Longevity Imperative: How to Build a Healthier and More Productive Society to Support Our Longer Lives, by Andrew Scott (2024).  EXTRAS:"Off Leash," by The Freakonomics Radio Network (2022)."Are You Ready for a Glorious Sunset?" by Freakonomics Radio (2015).
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  • Let's start today with some numbers,

  • some demographic statistics that I think you'll find surprising.

  • Here's the first one.

  • Within 10 years,

  • there will likely be more people in the US 65 and older than there are people 18 and younger.

  • This is a brand new state of affairs,

  • and the rest of the world is following the same path.

  • Let's call it the Elder Swell.

  • How can this Elder Swell be explained?

  • It's been driven by two big trends.

  • Lower fertility, which we talked about in part one of this series,

  • and a massive increase in life expectancy, especially over the past century and a quarter.

  • That is thanks to, among other things,

  • more abundant food, cleaner air and water, less war,

  • and vastly better public health and medical care,

  • especially the treatment and prevention of diseases that used to kill so many children.

  • But the real headline of The Elder's Swell is not just that more people will be living more years,

  • it's that those years are expected to be better.

  • This is what researchers call healthspan versus lifespan.

  • Let me give you another set of surprising statistics.