Taiwanese tightrope: what might happen if China invaded Taiwan?

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Editor's Picks from The Economist

2025-06-18

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A handpicked article read aloud from the latest issue of The Economist. The prospect of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is an uncomfortable hypothetical for any government to contemplate. We lay out the potential players if a conflict were to break out. Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to Economist Podcasts+. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account.
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  • The Economist.

  • Hi, this is Ethan Wu, co-host of Money Talks, our business and finance podcast.

  • Welcome to Editor's Picks.

  • We've handpicked an article we recommend from the most recent edition of The Economist.

  • I hope you enjoy it.

  • "The elephant in the room", acknowledged Emmanuel Macron, France's president,

  • speaking to an audience of defence bigwigs at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on May 30th,

  • "is the day China decides a big operation."

  • Would France intervene on day one of such a war, he mused?

  • "I would be very cautious today."

  • Mr Macron's ambivalence is widely shared.

  • If China were to invade Taiwan, no one is certain how different countries would line up.

  • A new paper by the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS),

  • a think-tank in Washington, examines that question.

  • If America stayed out of the war, it suggests, everyone else would, too.

  • Speaking in Singapore, Pete Hegseth,

  • America's defence secretary, sought to dispel that thought.

  • "Any attempt by Communist China to conquer Taiwan by force

  • would result in devastating consequences," he said.

  • "Our goal is to prevent war, to make the costs too high."