Campaign calculus: the Kamala effect

竞选计算:卡玛拉效应

Editor's Picks from The Economist

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2024-08-05

5 分钟
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A handpicked article read aloud from the latest issue of The Economist. Today, we examine the early polling that suggests that the US presidential race is tightening, now that Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee. Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to Economist Podcasts+ For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account.
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  • The Economist. Hi, John Priddo here.

  • I host Checks and Balance, our weekly US politics podcast.

  • Welcome to Editor's Picks.

  • You're about to hear an article from the latest edition of The Economist.

  • I hope you enjoy it.

  • Joe Biden has been one of the most unpopular presidents to seek re-election

  • since the advent of modern polling.

  • In April 2023, when he declared his intention to run for a second term,

  • some 41% of Americans said they approved of him.

  • More than a year later,

  • after his disastrous debate performance and calls from high-profile members of his own party for him to step aside,

  • his approval rating sank to an all-time low of 37%.

  • But throughout the intervening period,

  • polls showed that the Democratic Party was weathering the storm,

  • despite its standard bearer taking on water.

  • When given a choice between Mr Trump and an unnamed Democratic candidate,

  • rather than Mr Biden, Democrats enjoyed a clear lead.

  • Who was this mysterious Democrat who could both excite the party's base and work to woo moderate and undecided voters?

  • It seems that the answer may have been hiding in plain sight.

  • Carmela Harris,