Cushioned blow: why inflation fell without a recession

缓冲冲击:为何通胀下降并未引发经济衰退

Editor's Picks from The Economist

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2024-09-03

4 分钟
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A handpicked article read aloud from the latest issue of The Economist. Today, we explain the victory over high inflation. High interest rates, not the passage of time, have restored price stability. Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to Economist Podcasts+
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  • Hello, Mike Bird here, co-host of Money Talks,

  • our weekly podcast on markets, the economy and business.

  • Welcome to Editor's Picks.

  • We've chosen an article from the latest edition of The Economist,

  • which we very much hope you'll enjoy.

  • At their annual retreat in Jackson Hole, central bankers celebrated the fall of inflation.

  • But do they deserve the credit?

  • In the rich world,

  • annual price rises in the median country are down from a peak of about 10% in early 2022 to below 3% today.

  • Remarkably, this has been achieved without deep recessions.

  • The Federal Reserve will probably soon join central banks in Europe in cutting interest rates,

  • bond yields have fallen sharply since the summer,

  • and stock markets have shrugged off a growth scare that struck at the beginning of August.

  • America's economy was in fact bigger in the second quarter of 2024 than had been forecast before the Covid-19 pandemic struck.

  • Monetary tightening is supposed to slow growth.

  • and in the 1980s it quelled inflation only after deep downturns.

  • The apparent lack of damage today has led to the revival of a dangerous myth that inflation would have gone away by itself.

  • Paul Krugman of the New York Times has even claimed that Jerome Powell, the Fed's chair,

  • used his speech at Jackson Hole to attribute inflation largely to transitory pandemic effects.

  • resurrecting an old narrative that central bankers dumped in 2021.