Gloomy outlook: Vladimir Putin walks an economic tightrope

阴霾前景:普京在经济钢丝上行走

Editor's Picks from The Economist

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2024-11-26

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A handpicked article read aloud from the latest issue of The Economist. Despite facing tight sanctions over the war in Ukraine, Russia's economy has been expanding at its fastest rate in more than a decade. But rising interest rates could be a sign of trouble to come. Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to Economist Podcasts+
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  • The Economist. Hello, Mike Bird here, co-host of Money Talks,

  • our weekly podcast on markets, the economy and business.

  • Welcome to Editor's Picks.

  • We've chosen an article from the latest edition of The Economist,

  • which we very much hope you'll enjoy.

  • Most central banks are cutting interest rates.

  • Not Russia's.

  • Last month policymakers raised rates to 21%, a two-decade high.

  • Markets expect them to reach 23% by the year's end.

  • The shift is all the more unusual

  • as it is happening at a time of war when central bankers are normally loathed to suppress economic activity.

  • Russia's economy has confounded analysts

  • since the country invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

  • Despite facing one of the tightest sanction regimes in modern history,

  • it has undergone its fastest expansion in more than a decade.

  • Russia enjoyed growth of 3.6% last year and is expected to maintain such a pace this year.

  • Yet rather than being a demonstration of strength,

  • the central bank's decision to lift interest rates is a warning of trouble to come.

  • Government outgoings are increasingly difficult to sustain.

  • Russia's budget, unveiled in September,