Bond boom: yield trajectories should coax growth

债券牛市:收益率轨迹应引导增长

Editor's Picks from The Economist

2025-01-21

6 分钟
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A handpicked article read aloud from the latest issue of The Economist. Bond sell-offs may be alarming, but higher yields are a sign of a healthier economy. If policy makers act wisely, greater growth may be possible outside America. Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to Economist Podcasts+
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  • The Economist Hello, Rosie Bloor here,

  • co-host of The Intelligence, our daily news and current affairs podcast.

  • You're about to hear an article from the latest edition of The Economist read aloud.

  • We hope you enjoy it.

  • But since the Federal Reserve started reducing its rates in September,

  • the yield on America's 10-year Treasury has risen by about a percentage point to 4.7%. A global repricing has followed.

  • In Britain,

  • yields have climbed to about where they were after Liz Truss' disastrous mini-budget in 2022,

  • despite interest rate cuts and austere government rhetoric.

  • Yields are up in the Eurozone, Canada and across emerging markets.

  • The striking exception is China, where investors are worried about growth.

  • Almost everywhere else indebted governments,

  • companies and homeowners must grapple with the rising cost of capital.

  • The bad news is that bond investors are looking aghast at genuine economic uncertainty.

  • The good news is that the uncertainty is two-sided,

  • and on one of those sides higher yields are a sign of a healthier economy.

  • Though they are painful now, there might yet be a reason to cheer them.

  • The first headache for investors is inflation.

  • Globally it has fallen from an annual rate of 10.4% in late 2022 to 4.4% today,

  • leading to much back-slapping among central bankers.