Warning signs: China's financial system is flashing red

警告信号:中国金融体系红灯闪烁

Editor's Picks from The Economist

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2025-01-29

8 分钟
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A handpicked article read aloud from the latest issue of The Economist. Ten-year government bonds are just above a record low, pressure is increasing on banks and household demand has dropped. Can the government turn things around? Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to Economist Podcasts+. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account.
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  • The Economist Hi, it's Alice Su here.

  • I co-host Drum Tower, our weekly podcast on China.

  • Here's an article handpicked from the latest edition of The Economist, read out loud.

  • I thought you might enjoy it.

  • Short essays appear to be causing big problems in China's bond market.

  • Over the past year the term has been used to refer to rumours swirling around financial hubs which often originate with brief posts on social media that attempt to explain the inner workings of the system.

  • One such rumour claims that the central bank is hunting down speculators who have made illegal transactions on the bond market.

  • Another implies the China Financial Futures Exchange,

  • where bond futures are bought and sold,

  • has ratcheted up fees in order to discourage trading.

  • These are works of fiction and should be ignored, warn regulators.

  • But social media users can hardly be blamed

  • for trying to explain the country's bond yields.

  • A 10-year government bond now offers 1.65%,

  • just above a record low and down from 2.8% a year ago.

  • In most countries,

  • this would be a sign that investors are preparing for a long bout of deflation and stagnation of the sort suffered by Japan in recent decades.

  • Capital Economics, a research house,

  • compares the market's moves to those in America during the global financial crisis of 2007 to 2009.

  • No short story can capture the forces driving down yields.