The Trump trade: what investors expect from a second term

特朗普贸易:投资者对第二任期的期待

Money Talks from The Economist

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2024-11-07

47 分钟
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单集简介 ...

Stock markets rallied, the dollar surged and Treasury yields jumped higher as it became clear Donald Trump would be returning to the White House. Investors bet on lower taxes boosting growth, while higher tariffs and an immigration crackdown may drive up inflation. But will investors get what they're expecting from the return of Trumponomics? Hosts: Alice Fulwood and Mike Bird. Guests: The Economist's US economics editor Simon Rabinovitch; and Piper Sandler's Donald Schneider, who was the chief economist on the House of Representatives' main tax-writing committee last time Trump was in the White House. For more US election analysis, check out our sister podcasts “The Intelligence” and “Checks and Balance”. Transcripts of our podcasts are available via economist.com/podcasts. Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.
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  • For months, the presidential race has looked like a coin toss.

  • Neck and neck with six weeks to go.

  • Fresh CNN polling just released shows Vice President Harris and former President Trump in a national dead heat in the race for the White House.

  • That led to fears that America could be waiting days or even weeks.

  • to find out who the next president would be.

  • But on Election Day,

  • as the early results from Florida and Georgia came in, markets began moving.

  • The Trump trades are ripping, even though these are early and expected results.

  • The dollar surged, yields began to rise, and stock futures rallied,

  • all moves that indicated investors were betting on a Trump victory.

  • By midnight on the East Coast,

  • As results coming in from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin made the result all but a certainty,

  • these moves were decisive.

  • This is a bond market on fire.

  • The move now in your 10-year yields more than 17 basis points.

  • Equities across the border higher,

  • but it is concentrated again in a classic Trump trade, that of small caps.

  • Then, in Florida,

  • at just before 3 a.m. I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honor of being...

  • elected your 47th president and your 45th president.