Buck stops here: Kenneth Rogoff on the future of the US dollar

权责所在:肯尼斯·罗格夫论美元的未来

Money Talks from The Economist

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2025-05-09

45 分钟
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For the last 80 years, the US dollar has reigned supreme over global markets. It still accounts for more than half of all foreign trade invoices, international debt, and central bank currency reserves. It's also the safe haven of choice for investors in a global crisis. But that changed last month when Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs announcement sparked a brief yet unprecedented capital flight from the dollar. Suddenly the US was trading like a high-risk emerging market. It's raised questions about whether the dollar's days of dominance are numbered, and if so, then what could possibly replace it. We speak to somebody who has been asking those questions for many years—indeed, he's just published a book about it: Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist of the IMF. Hosts: Mike Bird and Ethan Wu. Guest: Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University and the author of “Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance and the Road Ahead”. Transcripts of our podcasts are available via economist.com/podcasts. Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.
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  • The Economist. At Bretton Woods, New Hampshire,

  • delegates from 44 allied and associate countries arrived for the opening of the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference.

  • In July of 1944, with victory in World War II looking increasingly certain,

  • US President Franklin D. Roosevelt gathered allied and friendly nations at a luxury hotel in New England.

  • These meetings are designed to promote trade in the post-war world and to create a foundation for lasting peace.

  • But the Bretton Woods Conference did a lot more than that.

  • It also laid the foundation for a new financial world order,

  • one built on the supremacy of the US dollar.

  • In the eight decades since, the greenback has faced some serious challenges,

  • like Nixon's dismantling of the original Bretton Woods system in the 1970s.

  • We must protect the position of the American dollar as a pillar of monetary stability around the world.

  • And potential rivals in the Japanese yen and the euro.

  • With Beethoven's Ode to Joy and with champagne,

  • the super currency was launched and then...

  • the quiet purr of German satisfaction as the euro strengthened.

  • But the buck still reigns supreme.

  • Today, the dollar accounts for 58% of all central bank currency reserves,

  • 65% of cross-border lending,

  • 54% of foreign trade invoices,

  • and 88% of all currency conversions are either into or out of the dollar.