Softer Than Expected Inflation Points to Muted Tariff Fallout

预期通胀低于预期,关税影响趋于缓和

Bloomberg Intelligence

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2025-05-14

20 分钟
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Watch Alix and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Paul Sweeney and Alix Steel Today’s Podcast Features are: -Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Rate Strategist, discusses U.S CPI data. US inflation rose by less than forecast in April amid tame prices for clothing and new cars, suggesting little urgency so far by companies to pass along the cost of higher tariffs to consumers.-Sarah Ponczek, Financial Advisor at UBS Private Wealth Management, discusses her outlook for the markets. The stock market rallied, wiping out losses for the year, on speculation that trade war tensions are cooling, with the S&P 500 rising 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 climbing 1.7%.-Glen Losev, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Equity Analyst, discusses UnitedHealth earnings. UnitedHealth Group Inc. unexpectedly replaced its chief executive and suspended earnings guidance, raising increasing questions over how the company once regarded as a safe bet by investors has got its cost predictions so wrong.-Anurag Rana, Bloomberg Intelligence Technology Analyst, discusses Microsoft saying it will cut thousands of workers with a focus on reducing layers of management. The planned terminations will amount to less than 3% of total headcount, a spokesperson said. They will occur across geographies, employee levels and include LinkedIn, the spokesperson added. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  • Let's get to the bond market here.

  • So we had CPI came in better than expected,

  • yet you have yields lower by two basis points in the front end.

  • Head scratcher for me, Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence, a senior U.S. interest rate strategist.

  • So in my one plus one equals two, you get inflation less of a problem.

  • Therefore, the Fed won't have to cut.

  • Why are my yields lower here?

  • Well, it's not only that the Fed won't have to cut,

  • but that the Fed can maybe cut a little bit, right?

  • So it's both.

  • Yeah.

  • So lower inflation and inflation below target or at their target is a necessary condition for the Federal Reserve to cut.