Is the Oil Market Flashing a Potential Recession Warning?

石油市场是否在发出潜在的经济衰退警告?

Thoughts on the Market

商务

2025-04-30

4 分钟
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Our Global Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats discusses the ongoing volatility in the oil market and potential macroeconomic scenarios for the rest of this year.
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  • Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

  • I'm Martin Ratz, Morgan Stanley's global commodity strategist.

  • Today on the podcast,

  • the uncertainty in the oil market and how it can play out for the rest of the year.

  • It's Tuesday, April 29th at 3 p.m. in London.

  • Now, notwithstanding the energy transition,

  • the cornerstone of the world's energy system is still the oil market.

  • And in that market, the most important price is the one for Brent crude oil.

  • Therefore,

  • fluctuations in oil prices can have powerful ripple effects on various industries and sectors,

  • as well as on the average consumer, who of course pays attention to gasoline prices at the pump.

  • Now, with that in mind, we're asking the question,

  • what's been happening in the global oil market recently?

  • Earlier this month, Brent crude oil prices dropped sharply,

  • falling 12.5% over just two trading sessions,

  • from about $75 a barrel to close to $65 a barrel.

  • That was primarily driven by two factors.

  • First,

  • worries about the impact of trade wars on the global economy and therefore on oil demand after the Trump administration's announcement of reciprocal tariffs.

  • Secondly, was OPEC's announcement that notwithstanding all the demand uncertainty that this created,