2025-04-30
4 分钟Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
I'm Martin Ratz, Morgan Stanley's global commodity strategist.
Today on the podcast,
the uncertainty in the oil market and how it can play out for the rest of the year.
It's Tuesday, April 29th at 3 p.m. in London.
Now, notwithstanding the energy transition,
the cornerstone of the world's energy system is still the oil market.
And in that market, the most important price is the one for Brent crude oil.
Therefore,
fluctuations in oil prices can have powerful ripple effects on various industries and sectors,
as well as on the average consumer, who of course pays attention to gasoline prices at the pump.
Now, with that in mind, we're asking the question,
what's been happening in the global oil market recently?
Earlier this month, Brent crude oil prices dropped sharply,
falling 12.5% over just two trading sessions,
from about $75 a barrel to close to $65 a barrel.
That was primarily driven by two factors.
First,
worries about the impact of trade wars on the global economy and therefore on oil demand after the Trump administration's announcement of reciprocal tariffs.
Secondly, was OPEC's announcement that notwithstanding all the demand uncertainty that this created,