Is anyone gonna do anything about these Iran War trades?

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• 00:02

  This is The Indicator from Planet Money.

• 00:13

  I'm Waylon Wong.

• 00:14

  And I'm Ricky Mulvey.

• 00:16

  The Iran war has led to the deaths of thousands of people,

• 00:19

  economic instability around the globe, and billions of dollars in U.S. Military spending.

• 00:23

  But financial markets march on.

• 00:25

  And now, traders aren't just watching price charts and economic data.

• 00:29

  They're staying tuned to President Trump's truth social posts.

• 00:32

  They're seeing if the war seems to be heating up or cooling down.

• 00:36

  If it's heating up, oil prices are up.

• 00:39

  If it's cooling down, the S&P 500 has a good day.

• 00:43

  But some traders may know what's coming before the rest of the market does.

• 00:47

  Case in point, in late March, President Trump announced on Truth Social that he would postpone strikes on Iran.

• 00:53

  Right before that announcement, at least one trader bet big that oil prices would fall and the S&P 500 would rise.

• 01:01

  Doesn't mean it couldn't be completely coincidence.

• 01:03

  Could be.

• 01:04

  But it does strike me as a bit fishy.

• 01:09

  Today on The Indicator, we're looking into suspicious trades.

• 01:12

  How did a financial tool that farmers use transform into speculative bets on Iran getting a nuclear weapon?

• 01:19

  And are regulators paying attention?

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