2025-04-29
3 分钟Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and Chief U.S.
Equity Strategist.
Today I will discuss what to expect from equity markets as we enter the heart of earnings season.
It's Monday, April 28th at 1130 a.m. in New York, so let's get after it.
The S&P 500 tested both the lower and upper ends of our 5,000 to 5,500 range last week,
reinforcing the notion that we remain in a volatile trading environment.
Incrementally positive news on a potential tariff deal with China in hope for a more dovish Fed lifted stocks into the end of the week,
and the S&P 500 closed slightly above the upper end of our range.
While a modest overshoot of $5,500 can persist very short term,
a sustainable break above this level is dependent on developments that have yet to come to fruition.
Those include a tariff deal with China that brings down the effective rate materially,
a more dovish Fed,
10-year treasury yields falling below 4% without recessionary risks increasing,
and a clear rebound in earnings revisions.
Bottom line, until we see clear positive shift in one or more of these factors,
range trading is likely to continue with risks to the downside given that we are now at the top end of the range.
A frequent question we're getting from clients is, does the soft data matter for equities?
or is the market waiting for the hard data to make up its mind in terms of an upside or downside breakout above or below this range?
Our view has been consistent that the most important macro data at this stage is from the labor market,