Should we be optimistic about the US economy? With Michael Strain

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• 00:00

  Almost one month after President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs were announced,

• 00:05

  the fallout from the package is becoming clearer.

• 00:08

  The IMF has lopped nearly a full percentage point off its growth forecast for the US

• 00:13

  and warned that a recession in the country is a growing risk.

• 00:17

  Investor confidence has fallen sharply.

• 00:19

  Stocks, bonds, and the dollar have followed.

• 00:22

  Concerns about the global economic outlook have risen as well as businesses digest what could be a fundamental reordering of the world trade system.

• 00:30

  Will Trump stick to his tariff agenda regardless?

• 00:33

  Might Republicans turn against him if it leads to higher inflation?

• 00:37

  And are threats to institutions, including the Federal Reserve, damaging appetite for US assets?

• 00:47

  This is the Economics Show.

• 00:48

  I'm Sam Fleming, the FD's economics editor, and I'm joined today by Michael Strain,

• 00:53

  director of Economic Policy Studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute here in Washington,

• 00:59

  D.C. michael has written extensively on reasons for optimism on the US Economy.

• 01:04

  His book the American Dream Is Not Dead But Populism Could Kill it, was published in 2020.

• 01:09

  But he's been very public of late about his concerns regarding the direction of US Economic policy under Donald Trump,

• 01:15

  calling for Trump to find an off ramp from his trade war.

• 01:19

  So has his previously sunny optimism about the US Economy been extinguished for good,

• 01:24

  or does he see a root out of the current economic upheaval?

• 01:29

  Michael, welcome to the show.

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