2025-04-26
11 分钟Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
I'm Michael Gapin, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S.
Economist.
And I'm Chetan Iyer, Chief Asia Economist.
Today we'll discuss some significant changes to our Asia growth forecast on the heels of tariffs,
as well as how the U.S. economy is reacting to the changes in the global trading environment.
It's Friday, April 25th at 8 a.m. in New York.
And 8 p.m. in Hong Kong.
So, Chaitan, since the last time we were both on the show,
it appears that we are headed towards at least some de-escalation of trade tensions.
Just last week,
you wrote in your report that the tariffs on China are too prohibitive for any trade to take place and that you expected some dialing down of the escalatory action.
And this week, the administration started to talk about easing tariffs on China significantly.
Considering all the events since April 2nd, and it's felt like a lot of events since April 2nd,
where does it leave you in terms of how you are thinking about the outlook?
So, Mike, that's right.
You know,
what we thought was that the current level of tariffs that the US has on China and what China has on the US means that effectively there are no transactions possible.
But look, even after those tariff rates are going down,
we are still expecting it to be in the range of around 60 percent.