2025-04-22
5 分钟Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and Chief U.S.
Equity Strategist.
Today I will discuss what it will take for the U.S.
Equity Market to break out of the 5,000 to 5,500 range.
It's Monday, April 21st at 11.30 a.m. in New York.
So let's get after it.
Last week we focused on our view
that the S&P 500 was likely to remain in a 5,000 to 5,500 range in the near term,
given the constraints on both the upside and the downside.
First on the upside,
we think it will be challenging for the index to break through prior support of 5,500,
given the recent acceleration lower in earnings revisions,
uncertainty on how tariff negotiations will progress,
and the notion
that the Fed appears to be on hold until it has more clarity on the inflationary and growth impacts of tariffs and other factors.
At the same time,
we also believe the equity market has been contemplating all of these challenges for much longer than the consensus acknowledges.
Nowhere is this evidence clear than in the ratio of cyclical versus defensive stocks as discussed on this podcast many times.
In fact, the ratio peaked a year ago, and is now down more than 40%.