Who Will Blink First in the US-China Trade War?

中美贸易战中谁会先眨眼?

Big Take

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2025-04-18

18 分钟
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As the trade war between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping continues to escalate, economists around the world are asking who will blink first. On today’s Big Take podcast, Bloomberg’s John Liu and Jennifer Welch join host David Gura to discuss what it will take for both presidents to come to the negotiating table, how the current state of China’s economy impacts its positioning in the trade war and why hardball tactics are unlikely to work this time around. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  • Okay.

  • We'll see Kolega, a public scholar and recording artist.

  • We're also giving you the culture breakdown straight from the source.

  • The standoff between the U.S. and China continues to escalate, which is leading to economic uncertainty worldwide.

  • Bloomberg News now reporting China is expanding the ongoing trade war.

  • It does not seem like we're getting any kind of state visit or to talk to anytime soon, or even high-level talks.

  • In the last two weeks,

  • the U.S. has placed tariffs of 145% on Chinese exports

  • and China has retaliated with tariffs of 125% and export restrictions on critical rare earth minerals.

  • China wants to make a deal.

  • They just don't know how quite to go about it.

  • It's one of those things that are not quite the proud people, and President Xi's a proud man.

  • At the moment, it doesn't seem to be working out, I think,

  • in the way in which President Trump may have anticipated or hoped that it would.

  • Jennifer Welch helped lead China policy at the National Security Council during the first Trump administration and also under President Biden.

  • Today, she's chief geoeconomics analyst for Bloomberg Economics.

  • I think President Trump's MO is to build pressure.

  • There's a real contrast of approaches here.

  • President Trump prides himself on his unpredictability as well as his hardball tactics, right?

  • Whereas Beijing, in particular, Chinese President Xi Jinping is a very methodical player when it comes to negotiations.