2024-10-29
16 分钟What will the U.S. presidential election mean for the economy?
I'm Allison Nathan and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
Each month I speak with investors,
policymakers and academics about the most pressing market-moving issues for our top of my report from Goldman Sachs research.
This month I spoke with top economists from each party to find out how the upcoming election could impact economic policy.
Jared Bernstein is the current chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Biden and Kevin Hassett served as the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Trump.
I spoke to each about a range of economic policies that are on the table that could shape the years ahead.
As you might guess, a lot of their views differed pretty starkly,
but there were also some interesting points of common ground.
I started off by asking how they'd characterize the economic landscape that the next U.S. president will inherit.
Here's what current CEA chair Jared Bernstein said.
Well, if you think about the macroeconomy,
I'd say they're likely to inherit a solid expansion where inflation has come down from its peak close to target without sacrificing much at all on the economy's growth side.
Unemployment's come up a bit, but it remains low.
The pace of job gains just over the past three months, 186,000.
That's at the north end of the break-even level that most labor economists subscribe to.
And very importantly, from the perspective of Biden-Harris administration,
we have rising real wages and incomes, and we've had those ongoing for a while now.
However, we have unfinished business when it comes to the housing market, the childcare market.
Clearly,