2025 outlook: Will tailwinds trump tariffs?

单集文稿 ...

• 00:00

  The global economy is coming off of another year of relatively strong growth in 2024, led by the U.S.,

• 00:06

  but new and important variables are now in the mix with the election of Donald Trump and the Republican sweep of Congress.

• 00:12

  So can the solid performance continue amid the policy shifts ahead, and what might be the implications for markets?

• 00:18

  I'm Allison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.

• 00:28

  In this episode, I'm sitting down with Jan Hotzius, head of Goldman Sachs Research and the firm's chief economist,

• 00:35

  and Dominic Wilson,

• 00:36

  senior advisor in the global markets research group to discuss the economic and market outlook for the year ahead.

• 00:42

  Jan and Dom recently published their 2025 macro outlook entitled, Tailwinds Probably Trump Tariffs.

• 00:48

  Jan Dom, welcome back to the program.

• 00:50

  Nice to be with you.

• 00:51

  So first of all,

• 00:52

  it's hard to believe a full year has gone by since we'd all sat down together to discuss the outlook for 2024,

• 00:57

  but here we are.

• 00:59

  And Jan, let me start by saying that when we sat down a year ago,

• 01:02

  you were forecasting resilient growth globally, and especially in the U.S.,

• 01:06

  as well as continued disinflation in the major economies that would pave the way for major central banks to start cutting rates,

• 01:14

  and all of that is generally played out.

• 01:15

  But meaningful U.S. economic policy shifts are likely ahead with the election of Donald Trump and a Republican sweep.

• 01:21

  So in your base case, is the trend a solid growth set to continue?

• 01:25

  Yes, we think so.

• 全部文稿