What investors expect from Trump

投资者对特朗普的期望是什么?

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

商务

2024-12-09

20 分钟
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Goldman Sachs Research’s Chief US Economist David Mericle shares what investors are expecting under the second Trump administration and how those policy assumptions are reflected in market pricing.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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  • Donald Trump is set to take office in a month and a half,

  • so what are investors expecting from the second Trump administration?

  • I'm Alison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.

  • Here with me today is David Miracle, chief U.S. economist with Goldman Sachs Research.

  • David, welcome back to the program.

  • Thank you very much, Alison.

  • So obviously we've seen a very positive market reaction post the election of Donald Trump, at least in U.S. equities.

  • But here at Goldman Sachs, we took the initiative to actually try to survey investors to see what they are expecting.

  • So before we get into the findings of that survey, talk to us a little bit about the survey,

  • how you made it, who did it go to, give us some details.

  • Sure.

  • So we have our own policy expectations for what might change under the second Trump administration,

  • but we wanted to understand what are investors thinking, what assumptions underlie market pricing.

  • And so in conjunction with our marquee team,

  • we surveyed over 500 people and we asked them about the whole range of issues that we think are most macroeconomically significant,

  • immigration policy,

  • trade policy, and fiscal policy, to try to get a sense of,

  • are they looking for more or less the same policy changes as us, or where might views differ?

  • And so what are investors most nervous about in that survey?

  • So we actually asked this question,