Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.
Today, I'm going to talk about the historic gains we saw this week in markets, and what they may, or may not, tell us.
It's Friday, April 11th at 2 p.m. in London.
Wednesday saw the S&P 500 gain 9.5%.
It was the 10th best day for the U.S. equity market in the last century, which raises a reasonable question.
Is that a good thing?
Do large one-day gains suggest further strength ahead, or something else?
This is the type of research question we love digging into.
Pulling together the data,
it's pretty straightforward to sort through those other banner days in stock market history, going back to 1925.
And what they show is notable.
I'm now going to read to you when those large gains occurred in order of the gains themselves.
The best day in market history, March 15, 1933, when stocks soared over 16%, it happened during the Great Depression.
The second best day, October 30, 1929, during the Great Depression.
The third best day, Great Depression.
The fourth best, the first trading day after Germany invaded Poland in 1939, and World War II began.
The fifth best day, Great Depression.
The sixth best, October 2008, during the financial crisis.
The seventh best, also during the financial crisis.