The AI 2027 scenario (News)

AI 2027年情景(新闻)

The Changelog: Software Development, Open Source

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2025-04-08

9 分钟
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Daniel Kokotajlo and the AI Futures Project lays out a potential scenario of superhuman AI's impact, Liam ERD generates beautiful, interactive ER diagrams from your database, Mozilla takes on Gmail with "Thundermail", algernon explains why grepping remains terrible & Vitor M. de Sousa Pereira rans on the insanity of being a software engineer.
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  • What up nerds, I'm Jared and this is Changelog News for the week of Monday, April 7th, 2025.

  • Now that Severance Season 2 is all wrapped up,

  • I need something else to watch of similar caliber and intrigue.

  • Otherwise, I'll fall back into my New Girl and American Pickers reruns habit.

  • Hit me with your recommends.

  • Okay, let's get into this week's news.

  • The AI Futures Project is a new non-profit organization led by Daniel Kokotajlo,

  • a former researcher in OpenAI's governance division with a goal of forecasting the future of AI.

  • In their first publication, AI 2027,

  • the group predicts that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous,

  • exceeding that of the industrial revolution.

  • They lay this potential future out in a scenario that,

  • quote, represents our best guess about what that might look like.

  • It's informed by trend extrapolations, war games, expert feedback.

  • experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes, end quote.

  • What's cool about this work, unlike so many that you can find online, is its incredible detail.

  • The story goes quarter by quarter through the next 2.5 years,

  • weaving one potential narrative of how things might proceed.

  • There are two endings though, a slowdown and a race ending.

  • The overall goal is not prescriptive, it's predictive accuracy.