2025-01-22
9 分钟Welcome to the world in 10 in an increasingly uncertain world.
This is the Times daily podcast dedicated to global security today with me, Alex Dibble and Toby Gillis.
Donald Trump's threat to Russia.
You'll be in deep trouble if you don't make a deal.
On day two of his presidency is in some quarters at least being seen as a tacit promise to arm Ukraine to the teeth of if Vladimir Putin doesn't come to the table.
That may or may not be the case, but concerns are now being raised about the long term future if a deal is to be made.
While it would end the war for now, one top British general has warned that a period of peace would allow Russia to build back better and stronger for another attack in a few years time.
Larissa Brown, the Times defense editor, is our guest today.
Larissa, what are the specific concerns of Lieutenant General Mike Elvis?
Well, he was talking at the International Armoured Vehicle Conference in Farnborough yesterday, which I was attending, and he basically was making the point that if this deal does go ahead, then it's going to give Russia time to rebuild and reconstitute its forces.
He was also suggesting that also, you know, we will have to think about obviously doing the same thing and therefore indicating that we've all got to be in this arms race and prepare for the next conflict.
So actually any peace deal with Russia will amount to us just all facing another war in a few years time when everyone's managed to build up their forces.
Larissa, did you get the sense that he means Russia would come back for more of Ukraine or is it a wider attack on the west that the general's anticipating?
Well, look, he didn't go into it, but I mean, anyone that you sort of speak to in these military circles fear that Eastern Europe could be a target next.
And obviously if he's able to rebuild his forces and he's got the manpower available, then he could try and take Ukraine, take all of the territory and then move on into NATO territory.
And that's obviously everybody's big concern here.
Even if he does go into Ukraine and we've got potential training troops there or, or something similar, then that could also trigger a wider war that would involve countries such as the UK and potentially.
So I think he was trying to suggest really that there's a lot of stake here and also indicating that Putin can't be trusted to agree to a fair deal because if he does agree to anything, it's only going to be what serves his national interest.
And he has made very clear that he is intent on taking Ukraine.
And there's nothing to suggest that he's going to give up anytime soon without.