2025-01-18
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Welcome to the world in 10 in an increasingly uncertain world.
This is the Times daily podcast dedicated to global security today with me, Tom Noonan and Alex Dibble.
After more than 24 hours of delays, Israel's security cabinet has approved the ceasefire deal for Gaza.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accused Hamas of blackmailing Israel by making last minute changes to the deal that was announced by Qatar and the us.
But by Friday morning all that had been ironed out.
So now Netanyahu says the first Israeli hostages could be home as soon as Sunday as part of this six week ceasefire, which is the first stage of bringing the violence in Gaza to an end.
But what's going to happen in that time, both in Israel and Gaza?
Can Netanyahu actually keep his government going until then, given that he currently relies on parties opposed to the deal?
And is there any guarantee that this temporary pause to fighting will actually lead to a lasting peace?
Our guest today is the Times, Richard Spencer.
Richard, for a long time in this conflict, analysts have suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu would be in serious political danger if and when a ceasefire actually came, and that that was the moment when his whole coalition could well fall apart.
We're now at that moment.
Has that actually happened or will he survive this moment of maximum peril?
I think the thinking at the moment is that Netanyahu has managed to pull this off, as he so often tends to do.
Two far right members of the cabinet have been threatening to resign over this deal.
They oppose it.
One of those, Itamar Ben gvir, who's the Public Security Minister, has said he will resign if the deal is signed, which it seems as if it will be.
He will be taking six of his MPs out of the coalition, which isn't enough to crash the government, but almost is the other cabinet Minister Balazel Smotrick has said he would oppose the deal, but at the moment is staying inside the government, which is just enough to keep the government going.
Now, the only problem with this is that smoterk, you know, he wants at the end of the first prisoner exchange, the 42 days, a guarantee that Netanyahu will, in fact, return to fighting Hamas until Hamas is destroyed.